US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%

공개

Screen the entire US equity universe by three hard criteria—trailing 3-year ROE sustained above 15%, positive free cash flow, and reasonable valuation—and surface one stock per day

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 08. 22:22:23

Nike (NKE) — brand in freefall, but passing all three screens at a 12-year low

Nike, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) clears all three hard screening criteria — ROE of 34.63% / 40.09% / 23.29% across FY2023–FY2025 (each above the 15% threshold), positive free cash flow in every measured year, and a trailing P/E of 28.34× that is 9% below Nike's own 5-year average. The central tension is that these passing grades are lagging indicators: FCF has collapsed 84% from its FY2024 peak to $1.05B TTM, operating margin has roughly halved, revenue fell 10% in FY2025 with further declines expected in Q4 FY2026, and both S&P and Moody's have downgraded the company's debt. CEO Elliott Hill's "Win Now" turnaround strategy shows early signs in running (+20% Q1 FY2026) and wholesale recovery, but the revenue inflection date has slipped to Q3 FY2027. Q4 FY2026 earnings on June 30, 2026 are the next major verification event.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 07. 21:32:27

Amgen (AMGN) — $57B in debt, falling FCF, and a GLP-1 moonshot

Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) passes all three hard screening criteria — GAAP ROE of 21–22% for FY2023–FY2025 (SEC EDGAR verified), positive FCF in every measured year, and a trailing P/E of 24.33× that sits 5% below Amgen's own 5-year average. The central tension: a $57.3 billion debt load from the 2023 Horizon Therapeutics acquisition is compressing FCF as biosimilar erosion accelerates on Prolia/XGEVA and ENBREL — while the obesity drug MariTide represents a genuine pipeline option. Closes with a structured bull/bear framework.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 06. 21:28:57

Adobe (ADBE) — 40% cheaper than a year ago, but earnings keep growing

Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) passes all three hard screening criteria: ROE of 37.9% / 38.8% / 39.0% for FY2023–FY2025 (each year well above the 15% threshold), TTM FCF of $10.3 billion (FCF yield ~10.2%), and a trailing P/E of 14.65× — 64% below Adobe's own 5-year average and 50% below enterprise software peer median. The article covers all nine required areas and closes with a structured bull/bear framework anchored on the June 11 Q2 FY2026 earnings report.

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